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Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman's passionate case for guaranteeing preschool access for every 4-year-old in the state deserves scrutiny. The evidence for universal pre-K as an economic development strategy is far weaker than she suggests. Kentucky families deserve honesty about what this expensive and expansive program can – and cannot – deliver.
Coleman omits the most rigorous recent research on the subject. Researchers from Vanderbilt University followed nearly 3,000 low-income children through sixth grade with alarming results: Children who attended Tennessee's Voluntary Pre‑K (TN-VPK) program fared worse on a range of metrics compared with children who didn't attend.
On the academic front, any gains observed in pre-K faded by the end of kindergarten. Even worse, the negative effects grew larger over time. Children who were in the pre-K program scored lower on achievement tests in both third and sixth grade compared to their peers who did not attend. By sixth grade, pre-K attendees were more likely to be in special education.
The negative impacts carried over to behavior, too. TN-VPK students showed higher rates of disciplinary incidents, including suspensions and expulsions, and slightly lower attendance rates. The researchers theorized that center-based care, which generally becomes the default setting when the government expands funding, hinders the development of children’s self-control, a key foundation for long-term success.
Importantly, TN-VPK isn't a small pilot program – it’s exactly the type of scaled-up, statewide public pre-K that Coleman proposes for Kentucky. Researcher Dale Farran, who spent decades studying early childhood education, admitted the findings forced "a lot of soul-searching" about everything she thought she knew. “At least for poor children, it turns out that something is not better than nothing,” she concluded.
Research consistently shows that initial academic gains from pre-K typically fade out by third grade. This "fade-out effect" has been documented across multiple evaluations. Even the much-touted Boston pre-K program has shown mixed results. A recent study found some positive outcomes, particularly for boys – higher rates of high school graduation and college enrollment, plus fewer disciplinary issues in high school. But neither this study nor a separate one found any positive effects before high school.
Coleman's rosy projections – $9,000 annual earnings boost, 70,000 new workers – deserve skepticism. National estimates suggest quality universal pre-K costs around $12,500 per child annually. For Kentucky, that means hundreds of millions in annual costs requiring either tax increases or cuts to other priorities.
Further, Coleman doesn't address a key issue: Most existing state pre-K programs are mediocre. According to the National Institute for Early Education Research, only six programs in five states meet all 10 quality benchmarks. Thirty-seven percent of children in state-funded preschool attend programs meeting fewer than half the quality standards. Even programs that meet most of those standards, such as Tennessee’s, haven’t proven beneficial to children.
Religious or other values-based providers can also be harmed by government pre-K programs. For example, many religious providers cannot participate in Colorado’s universal pre-K program due to a provision that requires them to admit students regardless of sexual orientation and “gender identity,” including the child or the child’s family. Faith traditions that hold a traditional view of marriage or do not believe people can change genders now face an uneven playing field as other pre-K providers receive a public subsidy. And families who want their children to attend those preschools can’t utilize the program their tax dollars fund.
Coleman is right that Kentucky families struggle with childcare costs and access. But universal pre-K is not the solution she claims. The research on large-scale, statewide programs is mixed at best and concerning at worst.
“Pre-K for All" sounds appealing in political speeches. But Kentucky families need solutions that actually work, not programs rooted in wishful thinking. If other states' universal pre-K programs show disappointing results, why should Kentucky expect different outcomes? And if we're serious about helping children, shouldn't we demand better evidence before spending hundreds of millions of dollars from taxpayers?
Kentucky's children deserve evidence-based policy, not expensive experiments. It's time for honest conversation about early childhood education – one that acknowledges both pre-K's limits and the need for smarter, targeted solutions.
Caleb O. Brown is CEO of the Bluegrass Institute. Colleen Hroncich is a policy analyst with the Cato Institute’s Center for Educational Freedom.
This piece originally appeared in the Booneville Sentinel.
